THE SINGULARITY

Levels of Organization

By Mike Deering

Standard Caveat - Even though this essay appears on the SAG website it is represented as solely the opinion of Mike Deering and is not endorsed by the SAG organization or the individual members of the SAG Board of Directors. It is the policy of the SAG to present a diversity of opinion on the Singularity.

Singularity - the explosion of nanotechnology, biotechnology and computer technology.

Molecular Nanotechnology - the complete control over the structure of matter at the atomic level.

Molecular Biotechnology - functional genomics, proteomics, cell biology.

AI - Artificial Intelligence, human level knowledge, reasoning, and cognition in a computer.

SAI - super human level intelligence in a computer.

The universe functions on three levels of organization. The first level is "physical law" as described by physics and chemistry. The second level is "life" comprising biological functions, DNA, molecular biology, and molecular biotechnology. The third level is "mind" displaying the characteristics of thought, consciousness, intelligence, and information processing.

Many useful and interesting things in the universe are made of atoms, such as, stars and planets, spaceships and airplanes, golf clubs and golf shoes, ham and eggs, your dog and your wife. The behavior of these atoms is the science of physics and chemistry. Question: What is the difference between your wife and your best set of golf clubs? Answer: The type and arraignment of the atoms. A technology that could precisely control the type and arraignment of the atoms of any "thing" would be a very handy technology. Molecular nanotechnology is just such a technology.

Suppose you have such a technology. And you are bragging to your neighbor across the hedge that you can make absolutely anything. After a couple of simple challenges like hedge trimmers and sunglasses he comes up with a real doozy. He challenges you to make a live dragon that flies, breaths fire, and eats only virgins. You are stumped. In order to make a completely new living organism, or repair, or redesign an existing living organism, such as yourself, you need a type of knowledge that wasn't included in your molecular nanotechnology user's guide.

You need to know how living organisms work from the molecules up. You need a knowledge base of DNA, proteomics, molecular biochemistry, cell biology, and systems biology. And you need a toolbox called molecular biotechnology. You also need to know if your neighborhood is zoned for fire breathing dragons. Molecular biotechnology comprises some very complex scientific challenges. But you are in luck. All the tools required for the development of molecular biotechnology are included in the basic capabilities of molecular nanotechnology.

Meanwhile, some people sitting on the local zoning board are saying they need some kind of automated system for intelligently monitoring the activities in the neighborhood to prevent violations of the zoning ordinances, such as the production of fire breathing dragons. The computer at the heart of this system would have to have a broad understanding of neighborhood life, the ability to exercise judgment, and predict consequences of actions. It would have to be a mind, hence artificial intelligence.

There are three different approaches to the development of AI. You could evolve it in an artificial environment (cyberspace). Or you could sit down and figure out what information processing algorithms are needed for perception, learning, and planning. Or you could use the tools provided by molecular nanotechnology to reverse engineer the human brain. And while we're at it, let's fix some of the obvious shortcomings of our mind's design.

Among the fixes would be increased memory capacity and accuracy, increased speed and accuracy of cognitive processing, the ability to perform long series of mathematical or logical operations flawlessly, the ability to implement new information processing algorithms, and modify the content and structure of existing mental processes.

We would want to run this reverse engineered, supped up, and re-engineered mind on hardware a bit more reliable in its operation than biological neurons, such as electronic molecular nanotube computer circuitry, which is made possible by molecular nanotechnology.

Ever since that first cave man in our past chipped a stone into the shape of a spear point we have been occupied with creating better tools. Molecular nanotechnology, molecular biotechnology, and artificial intelligence are the ultimate tools. Which makes us the ultimate tool creators. And if you are thinking that all these new technologies sound like fun but surely we will not have them for hundreds of years you really should read the next section, "What is the Singularity?"

WHAT IS THE SINGULARITY?

The Singularity is an unprecedented event in human history when life as we know it changes from "business as usual" to a condition of virtually unlimited capability.

The Singularity event is triggered by exponentially advancing technologies. Almost no one has much experience with exponential technological advancement. It is not part of our usual environment. We are evolutionarily and culturally programmed to expect imperceptible rates of change. We don't have the neurological cognitive structures to model exponential rates of change.

Witness the Human Genome Project. The first decade progress was so slow many experts predicted it would take 200 years to complete. Over 50 percent of the raw data was generated in the last nine months of a fifteen-year project.

When advancement continuously doubles over consecutive equal time periods that is first order exponential advancement. When the doubling time period shrinks over time that is second order exponential advancement.

We have all seen computers getting more powerful while the price simultaneously drops. The doubling time for computer power per dollar was 3 years in the 1950's, 2 years in the 1980's, 1 year in the 90's, and 9 months as of September 2002 and still dropping.

The reason for exponential technological advancement is that each incremental advancement in tool design results in increased productivity of future tool design advancement. It's a positive feedback loop of design tool productivity. Most of these feedback loops are based on continuing miniaturization of mechanical/electrical systems, the endpoint of which is molecular nanotechnology.

Exponentially advancing technologies will change everything about the way we live life and do it in an incredibly short period of time. The Singularity will result in almost unlimited technological capability. People who are currently competing for scarce resources will have incredible wealth and freedom.

SINGULARITY INCOMPREHENSIBILITY

Life after the Singularity will be quite different than at any time before, but it will not be incomprehensible. We can make a fairly complete list of the coming technological capabilities. The social consequences of these capabilities are up to us. It is necessary that a large portion of humanity put some thought into what kind of social structures we want, if only to avoid panic.

Recursively self-improving AI's will develop intelligence quantitatively beyond current human level intelligence. These quantitative improvements will include increased capacity, accuracy, and speed of data processing. Quantitative improvements are merely extensions of our current cognitive capabilities.

Qualitative improvements, or whole new ways of comprehending and thinking that are beyond our current understanding are not likely. The reason for not expecting a new kind of intelligence but only a new level of intelligence is that intelligence is about solving problems through algorithmic implementation. And based on the success that we have had in the physical, biological and informational systems we can surmise that we have already explored the broad outlines of algorithmic effective solution space. Of course I can't argue with the statement that we don't know what we don't know, but I think we can put what we don't know into successively smaller boxes.

Those who think that recursively self-improving AI is the whole or even the primary aspect of the Singularity are not seeing the whole elephant, just the trunk.

THE THREE-TECHNOLOGY SINGULARITY

The Singularity is the most significant event in the history of mankind. It consists of three simultaneous technological advancements, artificial intelligence, molecular nanotechnology, and molecular biotechnology. The rate of advancement starts out very gradually but due to a feedback mechanism gets faster the closer we get to the Singularity. Upon reaching the Singularity mankind's capabilities become truly awesome; complete control over the structure of matter at the atomic level, complete knowledge of biological processes from the macroscopic to the molecular levels, and super human artificial intelligences.

Each of these three technologies reaches a physical limit at the Singularity. The disruption of society and our way of life will be total. The Singularity will herald the beginning of a new age in which physical and mental perfection will be the norm along with unimaginable wealth and freedom. These benefits will accrue not just to the current privileged classes but also to every human being.

WHEN WILL THE SINGULARITY OCCUR?

One of the fundamental open questions about the Singularity is when will it happen and how fast will the technology advancement get. Projected trends indicate the Singularity should occur by 2020 (this may need to be revised to 2018 or 2016 based on Dani Eder's most recent estimate that the doubling time for computer power has dropped to 9 months as of September of 2002) and should be quite sudden, in the nature of an exponential curve.

How will all these changes be implemented? Eliezer Yudkowsky thinks AI will mature before the other two technologies, and that a superhuman intelligent AI will take us through the transition. He calls it the "transition guide". Eric Drexler and Ralph Merkle think the greatest potential lies with molecular nanotechnology. Ray Kurzweil and Hans Moravec are expecting a synthesis of computers and humans to lead the way.

The three technologies will likely develop in parallel due to their interactions. Mature nanotechnology (the complete control of the structure of matter at the atomic level) will allow us to rapidly produce atomically perfect products at the cost of the raw materials in unlimited quantities. It will allow us to produce materials fifty times stronger than steel or with whatever designer qualities we specify along with complete access and control of the biochemical processes of living organisms. And will give us the tools to rapidly reach maturity in molecular biotechnology and artificial intelligence by reverse engineering the biological organism and the functioning of the human brain. The effects on society cannot be overestimated, even though they have been overestimated in the past. The reason they were overestimated in the past is the difference between Singularity technologies in development and mature Singularity technologies.

The most likely scenario for the Singularity is that at about 2011 industrial nanotechnology will produce an avalanche of inexpensive goods eliminating poverty and hunger worldwide. At about 2012 computer technology based on nanotechnology will have advanced by six orders of magnitude from where it was in 2010. At about 2013 molecular biotechnology research based on nanotechnology and computer power will have produced cures for all bodily maladies. At about 2014 AI research based on nanotechnology and molecular biotechnology and computer power will produce the first SAI.

MINIATURIZATION (NANO)

Miniaturization of electrical/mechanical systems is the root source of the Singularity technologies. Advances in computer power are derivative of this source. Advances in tools used to expand functional genomic knowledge are derivative of miniaturization and computer power. Computer power will follow closely on the heels of nano because it is the most valuable application. But AI unlike nano or computer power will require huge theoretic leaps. So the progression is miniaturization (nano) facilitates computer power. Then molecular tools and powerful computers facilitate molecular biotechnology. And finally nanotech, computertech, and biotech all combine to produce SAI.

The root force behind the Singularity isn't Moore's Law. It's much more basic than that. We can follow it back to its source starting at Moore's Law. Moore's Law has two aspects, the how and the why.

The how is a feedback loop where the output of the process is used to make better tools used in the process thereby improving the speed, complexity, and power of the process. And of course, the better process produces better output, which is in turn used to make the process better, etc, etc. As we follow Moore's Law back through discreet transistor circuitry, vacuum tubes, mechanical calculators, and then transition into cultural information processing with the written language predated by the spoken language, and then back further through biological genetic evolution, and even further back through inanimate development of planetary environments, galactic development, condensation of matter from energy, Guth inflation, and ultimately to the initial dimensionless conditions of the universe, we can see this feedback process loop at every stage.

The why is economic. Likewise the motivational aspect of the economic forces can be traced back through competition for mates, natural selection, and back through emergent self-organizing properties of inanimate matter-energy via complex systems dynamics.

But where did it all begin? What is the root paradigm of these two interrelated concepts of how and why? What is the "basic concept"? Some have postulated GOD, but this idea seems to fail to Occum's Razor as being needlessly complex and ridiculously anthropomorphic. Certainly the Basic Concept predates space-time and matter-energy, and therefore must be independent of them.

What does that leave? Information. Kurzweil states in one of his public presentations with Gregory Stock that the ultimate tautological reality is pattern information. In an exchange between Ray and Eliezer Yudkowsky where Eliezer asked him if he wasn't underestimating the rate of advancement due to AI feedback, Ray responded that it would be difficult to overestimate the explosive speed of double exponential growth and that AI might be one of the factors that cause the continuation of Moore's Law beyond 2020.

Something so amazing, so incredible, something absolutely unprecedented in history is about to happen, the Singularity. The three Singularity technologies of nanotechnology, Super human Artificial Intelligence (SAI), and molecular biotechnology will change our world into a paradise, that is if we can avoid the unprecedented dangers these same technologies pose, such as bio-engineered super viruses, self-replicating nanobot weapons, unfriendly super intelligent machines, and the most dangerous of all - the unlimited capability for mindless self gratification (wireheading).

The bias that computer programmers have about AI being the end-all is a failure of perspective. Talk to a researcher involved in the investigation of the genetic code. He can see the exponential advancement in his field. He can imagine the amazing future that this technology will make possible; the total control of the biological design of living organisms. Both nanotechnology and genetic engineering will mature by 2021 whether AI is created or not, and completely change society overnight.

The term "technological singularity" is a misnomer. The more correct term is "societal singularity". Throughout history new technologies have changed society and while people acknowledge the triggering nature of the innovation the more significant historical aspect is how society was changed.

Just some of the things we expect to be possible after the Singularity:

1. Mature molecular nanotechnology will result in the production of any product at the cost of the raw materials, such as a computer for the price of a bag of sand. Production will be rapid and quantities unlimited. Quality will be perfect down to the atomic level. All material want will be easily satisfied. Molecular nanotechnology will also produce the tools for the advancement of molecular biotechnology and artificial intelligence. Nanotechnology will produce new materials fifty times stronger than steel or with any designer specifications desired for applications in space travel, large structures, and instrumentation.

2. Mature molecular biotechnology will result in the complete elimination of disease, disability, and death by natural causes (you can still jump off a cliff). People will have total control over the design, structure, functioning, and appearance of their bodies. We will be living in a fantasy world populated by angels, faeries, witches, demons, and goblins. Individuality will be the premium. Perfection in body and mind will be the norm. New physical capabilities will be common.

3. Super human artificial intelligence will result in consequences to society and our capabilities that are incomprehensible to human level intelligence, including human mind uploading, artificial realities, volition based morality, and more.

IN CONCLUSION

The end of the world is almost here and very few people are aware of it. Sometimes I am so overwhelmed by the enormity of the Singularity that I feel like I should join the guy on Main Street with a sign, "THE END OF THE WORLD IS NEAR".

The Singularity is about connecting levels of organization of matter in the universe. The top level is MIND, the bottom ATOMS (for our present purposes). The three technologies that correspond with the three basic functional levels are artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, and molecular biotechnology. Complete success in these three technologies will produce such drastic changes in our capabilities as to result in a societal Singularity. We are so close to making these final connections.

I hope this answers some of your questions about the Singularity. I also hope it stimulates more questions than it answers.